International Christian Embassy Jerusalem, 1 Mar 2010

The US is reportedly preparing to increase its naval forces in and around the Straits of Hormuz to interdict Iranian arms shipments as part of a stepped-up sanctions regime, but the move comes just as a top commander in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards has warned his country controls half the world’s oil supply and will freeze out Europe if it also imposes new sanctions on Tehran.

The US interdictions would focus on aggressive inspections of vessels travelling to or from Iran to make sure they are not transporting weapons, especially missiles headed for Iran’s proxy terror militias Hizbullah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and Shi’ite separatist groups in other Arab countries.

One Kuwaiti strategic analyst, Sami Al Faraj, assessed that the naval blockade was a much-needed step. "If we don't underscore our intent with some kind of serious measure, up to and including the physical cordoning of the coasts of Iran, we will have a war. When you're facing a nation that doesn't abide by any rules, this is the only language Iran is going to understand," he said.

But the deputy commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Hossein Salami, warned on Sunday that "Iran is standing on 50 percent of the world's energy and should it so decide, Europe will have to spend the winter in cold."

His comments -- aimed at EU countries now considering new sanctions against Tehran -- were made in reference to not only Iran’s own huge oil and natural gas reserves, but also to the massive crude oil supplies shipped by Arab states in the Persian Gulf region through the Straits of Hormuz to world markets.

Meantime, new IAEA chief Yukiya Amano told the agency’s 35-nation Board of Governors on Monday he could not confirm that all of Iran’s nuclear activities were for peaceful purposes. Though critical of Iran, his comments were seen as taking a step back from his initial hard-hitting report of two weeks ago in which he voiced concern that Tehran may be working on "the development of a nuclear payload for a missile."

Analysts suspect the milder tone of his oral report today was the result of criticism from developing countries on the board who take Iran’s side in its prolonged nuclear stand-off with the West.

On Sunday, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had charged that the US and its allies were behind the UN nuclear watchdog’s new forceful tone against Iran. "Some IAEA reports and actions show that this international agency lacks independence," Khamenei said. "The IAEA should not be influenced by the US and some (other) countries because unilateral acts erode trust in the agency and the United Nations. It is also very bad for the prestige and reputation of these international bodies."

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was also busy blasting away at Israel once again over the weekend, telling a pro-Palestinian conference in Tehran on Sunday that "the Zionist regime’s mission is threat, violence and beating drums of war... [It is the] origin of all the wars, genocide, terrors and crimes against humanity."

His latest tirade came as an Israeli delegation returned from Beijing, where it presented Chinese officials detailed intelligence on Iran's nuclear program in an attempt to convince China that Tehran is seeking atomic weapons, a senior diplomatic source told Ha'aretz.

Finally, The New York Times reported on Saturday that Iranian nuclear scientists have moved the country’s entire stockpile of low-enriched uranium out of its protected underground facilities and into an above ground facility where it can be enriched to 20%. One Western official suggested it was like placing a bull’s-eye on the material since it is now tantalizingly vulnerable to an air strike or even sabotage.

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